Outline of Services

Some Client Profiles

Synopsis of Experience (Partial List)

Some Recent CAIV and Risk Management Publications and Presentations

Vita

• Concept Formulation
• Process Development
• Program Implementation
• Owner and operator of CAIV web site, http://www.caiv.com/

• Risk Management Process Development (Risk Planning, Assessment, Handling (Mitigation) and Monitoring)
• Risk Management Process Implementation
• Development of Risk Plans
• Cost, Performance and Schedule Risk Assessments
• Development of Risk Handling Options
• Development of Risk Monitoring Techniques

Please visit http://www.risk-services.com for an extensive listing of available risk management services.

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Issue: The contractor and government were at odds over the amount of attention paid to Cost as an Independent Variable (CAIV) and its effectiveness on a multi-billion dollar program with very high DoD CAIV visibility.

Solution: Performed an independent assessment of the program’s CAIV activity. Identified and documented contractual CAIV requirements, t he contractor's CAIV approach and progress made to date in implementing CAIV, and areas of miscommunication between the contractor and government. Developed recommendations for the contractor and government which could lead to improved CAIV effectiveness.

Issue: A business was using a flawed risk management process on a multi-billion dollar high visibility program, which prevented it from accurately prioritizing risk issues and allocating funds to handle risks.

Solution: Performed an independent assessment of the risk management process. Identified and documented flaws in the risk analysis methodology and provided solutions that permitted an accurate prioritization of risk issues and development of suitable risk handling options.

Please visit http://www.risk-services.com for additional examples of risk management client profiles.

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• Performed an independent assessment of CAIV implementation on a major program with high-level CAIV visibility. Evaluated the prime contractor's CAIV implementation across the program and developed recommendations to improve the CAIV process.
• Performed an independent assessment of CAIV and DTC activity on a major program with high-level CAIV visibility. Developed specific recommendations to increase the level of CAIV effectiveness as part of the program's design and management processes. Evaluated both the prime contractor and sponsoring Service program office CAIV implementations, CAIV contractual requirements, progress made to date in meeting these requirements, and steps to improve the effectiveness of the contractor and government CAIV implementation.
• Performed an independent assessment of CAIV on a major program. Evaluated the government and contractor team's CAIV process and developed recommendations for improving the CAIV process. Successfully briefed government and contractor program office personnel and government headquarters' personnel on the results of this study.
• Developed enhanced CAIV and cost-performance-schedule tradeoff processes for a major program. This work included: evaluating the government and contractor CAIV processes, developing recommendations for improving the contractor's CAIV process, implementing upgrades to the contractor's CAIV and cost-performance-schedule tradeoff processes, integrated the CAIV process with the risk management process, and developed the program's Integrated Master Plan CAIV section.
• Performed an independent assessment of a prime contractor's CAIV process on a major program. Developed linkages between CAIV, risk management and systems engineering processes on this program.
• Identified potential CAIV issues on a series of diverse programs for a prime contractor (including a program with high-level CAIV visibility) and developed training materials and briefed key program personnel on methods to address these issues.
• Performed an independent assessment of a prime contractor's CAIV process on a major program, and developed recommendations to improve this process.
• Provided CAIV process and implementation guidance to the prime contractor on several proposal activities. This included writing CAIV proposal sections.
• At the request of HQ Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) and Aeronautical Systems Command (WPAFB), I developed recommendations on how risk management and CAIV processes should be linked. (This material was written for a forthcoming Air Force CAIV Handbook.)
• Provided initial guidelines for the Air Force to implement CAIV activities on programs prior to RFP release and following contract award. The guidelines contain recommendations for the RFP Statement Of Objectives and Sections L, M, and Standards; and post-award evaluation.
• Identified and evaluated cost/performance/schedule/risk tradeoffs on a series of major ground, air and space programs that led to design changes, which contributed to lower potential life cycle costs.
• Identified key cost/performance/schedule/risk tradeoffs for an organization that initiates and manages a large number of high complexity projects.
• Served as technical advisor and analyst evaluating cost-performance tradeoffs for a wide variety of advanced technologies. This work included evaluating focal plane arrays (8 projects); optical telescope assemblies (4 projects); cryocoolers (4 projects); gimbals (2 projects); electronics (2 projects); star sensors (2 projects); power supplies (2 projects); sensor integration, assembly and test (2 projects); EHF communications (5 projects); solar power (2 projects); data processors (3 projects); and spacecraft integration, assembly and test (2 projects).
• Developed a unique analytical framework for implementing and enhancing the effectiveness of CAIV and DTC and relating CAIV and DTC to risk management on commercial and military programs. This framework includes various aspects of buyer-seller interactions such as preferences, objectives, programmatic and technical constraints; impact of contract type; dynamic behavior during the course of a program and the likely range of outcomes. This work was validated by a statistical analysis that used a large sample of defense program data and extensive case studies of major DoD programs. One application of this framework was the rapid, successful prediction of potential cost-performance issues and trades on a high complexity development program which I had no prior experience.

• Developed an enhanced risk management process (risk planning, assessment (identification and analysis), handling and monitoring steps) for a major program. This work included: evaluating the government and contractor risk management processes, developing recommendations for improving the prime contractor's risk management process, tying together risk management activities across the program (e.g., cost, technical, schedule and security), developing and implementing upgrades to the contractor's risk management process (e.g., enhanced risk analysis methodologies), providing linkages between the risk management and CAIV processes, assisting in the initiation of the contractor Risk Management Board (and being a continuing member of this Board), briefing government personnel at major program reviews and co-developed the program's Integrated Master Plan risk management section.
• Led numerous risk management activities (including risk planning, identification, analysis, handling and monitoring) for a major program over a multi-year period of time. Member of the program's Risk Management Board.
• Performed an initial assessment of the risk management process on a major program. Evaluated the government and contractor team's risk management process, including its effectiveness and how it was linked to the program's CAIV process, and developed recommendations for improving the risk management process.
• Performed an independent assessment of a prime contractor's risk management process on a major program and developed detailed recommendations to improve their process. Developed an extensive Risk Management Plan for this program that covers all aspects of the risk management process (planning, identification, analysis, handling and monitoring). Currently assisting in the implementation of numerous recommendations that I made to enhance the risk management process.
• Tailored existing risk management processes to a fast paced (schedule compression about 4:1), very high technology program acknowledged by the government and prime contractor to be very high risk. Rapidly developed a detailed Risk Management Plan, risk identification procedures, risk analysis methodology, risk handling procedures, and metrics for risk monitoring. Performed initial risk management training for prime contractor personnel and worked with them to implement the risk management process. Implemented a Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis for key program activities and updated the results weekly. Led six comprehensive program risk assessments in an eight month period of time, and updated Risk Handling Plans for approved risk issues. Member of the program's Risk Management Board. Risk management progress was briefed to prime contractor and government senior management monthly. Briefed key government managers on the risk management process and was requested by the government to transfer this information to other, related programs. Government management commended me and credited the risk management work I performed with having "saved the program" on more than one occasion. The item met or exceeded performance requirements and was delivered to the government within budget and ahead of schedule.
• Evaluated the risk management process and associated training across a major government development center. Made numerous recommendations to enhance both the process and training.
• Performed an assessment of the risk management process on a high visibility program. Developed recommendations to improve the prime contractor's risk management process and assisted the contractor in implementing the enhancements.
• Performed an independent assessment of a prime contractor's risk management process on a major program and developed recommendations to improve this process.
• Performed an assessment of the risk management process on a multi-billion dollar program. Identified process deficiencies and rapidly developed recommendations to alleviate these shortcomings.
• Technical lead on developing and implementing the risk management process on a major program. This included successfully transferring the risk management process to the program’s prime contractors.
• Developed risk management guidelines, processes and implementation methods on a major program for a variety of risk categories (threat, technology, design and engineering, support, manufacturing, cost and schedule).
• Identified potential risk management issues on a series of large-scale programs for a prime contractor (including programs with high-level visibility) and developed training materials and briefed key program personnel on methods to address these issues.
• Performed a risk balancing analysis for the government across a complex program. Here, potential risk issues were identified and analyzed, and candidate risk handling approaches were developed that could be implemented as workarounds in the fielded system if hardware or software failures occurred.
• Provided risk management process and implementation guidance to the prime contractor on numerous proposal activities. This included writing key proposal sections on risk management.
• Developed steps to identify and alleviate some key risk issues for an organization that initiates and manages a large number of high complexity projects.

• Led cost, performance, and schedule risk analyses on a wide variety of programs for industry and government. This includes both qualitative and quantitative analyses using a variety of tools and techniques. (For example, several thousand Monte Carlo simulations have been performed since the late 1970s to support cost, performance, and schedule risk analyses.)
• Led technical risk assessments on a series of major ground, air and space programs to identify and evaluate potential development and production issues.
• Performed an independent evaluation of a prime contractor's risk assessment developed for its proposal to the government. Revised the risk analysis methodology to yield more consistent and accurate results, updated the resulting risk scores in several cases, and enhanced the supporting rationale used to justify the risk scores.
• Performed an independent assessment of the producibility risk for a ground station sensor system. This included evaluating the developer's design, potential system implementation options and possible government acquisition strategies.
• Led technical risk assessments in support of cost risk analyses on several major programs.
• Led extensive evaluations for the government of contractor risk assessment (and risk handling) results on several major programs.
• Performed an operational risk assessment of a high technology space program (and recommended risk handling strategies for selected risk issues).

• Led the development of enhanced risk analysis methodology on a major program, including: cost, hardware/software integration, mission effectiveness, manufacturing, schedule, technology, test procedures and threat risk categories.
• Rapidly developed a tailored risk analysis methodology for a high visibility program, including hardware (design and engineering, and technology), manufacturing (production equipment and test equipment), and software (design and engineering, technology and test) risk categories, plus consequence of failure.
• Rapidly developed a tailored risk analysis methodology for a major program, including: hardware (design and engineering, and technology), software (design and engineering), and manufacturing risk categories, plus consequence of failure.
• Developed an enhanced quantitative risk analysis methodology for a major program to perform Monte Carlo simulations for life cycle cost (incorporating cost estimating uncertainty, and schedule and technical risk) and schedule analysis (including schedule estimating uncertainty and technical risk).
• Rapidly developed and verified a methodology for incorporating schedule risk analysis into a Monte Carlo simulation for cost risk analysis.
• Co-led the development of an enhanced risk analysis methodology on a major program for a variety of risk categories (four software and five integration risk categories developed and four hardware risk categories enhanced), plus consequence of failure.
• Developed design and engineering, manufacturing, technology and threat risk analysis methodologies and assisted in developing schedule and support risk analysis methodologies. These methodologies have been applied to cost risk analysis on a number of major programs.
• Developed a tool for software risk identification and applied it on a major program.
• Developed methods for deriving and presenting risk analysis results that alleviate common errors associated with incorrect mathematical and probabilistic treatments. These methods have been successfully used on a number of programs.
• Developed a series of Monte Carlo simulations for assessing system performance risk on a major program. This contributed to winning a multi-billion dollar procurement.
• Developed and implemented a procedure on a major program to verify the integrity of output from Monte Carlo simulations used for estimating cost, performance and schedule risk.
• Developed or significantly enhanced three different risk analysis tools that incorporate Monte Carlo simulations. Beta tester for commercial software packages used to perform cost, performance and schedule risk analyses.
• Developed an innovative quantitative tool for estimating schedule risk which was used by the Deputy Director of a major program to support a Milestone review.

• Region II Director, Project Management Institute Risk Management Specific Interest Group (SIG) Board of Directors (1999-present).
• Performed a detailed edit of the draft 2000 update of the Project Management Institute (PMI) "Project Management Body of Knowledge" Guide, Risk Management Chapter (11), and submitted this material along with detailed backup for numerous recommended changes to PMI for inclusion in its next Guide. Credited as a contributor to developing this chapter.
• Primary author, Defense Extensions to the Project Management Institute "Project Management Body of Knowledge" Guide, Risk Management Chapter (11) 2000 version. This work was performed on a voluntary basis for DoD and resulted in a letter of commendation from DSMC.
• Primary author, Defense Extensions to the Project Management Institute "Project Management Body of Knowledge" Guide, Risk Management Chapter (11) 2001 version. This work was performed on a voluntary basis for DoD and resulted in a letter of commendation from DSMC.
• Member, Software Risk Management Working Group, IEEE Std P1540-2001, IEEE Standard for Software Life Cycle Processes--Risk Management (2000-2001).

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http://www.risk-services.com/aiaabok1.htm

http://store.aiaa.org/moreinfo.cfm?productid=740&FirstRow=1&LastRow=15&Keyword=effective%20risk%20management&Category=

Note: if this link no longer works, go directly to the AIAA on-line store, (http://store.aiaa.org), enter Effective Risk Management in the title search box near the top of the page (do not use quotes around the words), click FIND, then click on the returned title (which is a hyperlink to the book page). This will allow you to directly browse a summary of the book and place an on-line order.

1. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Long-Term Issues and Impediments Affecting Systems Acquisition Reform," presented at the 1995 (bi-annual) Acquisition Research Symposium, and published in the "1995 Acquisition Research Symposium Proceedings," Defense Systems Management College (DSMC), June 1995. This paper was co-winner of the David D. Acker award for "Skill in Communications" (best paper of the symposium). (The focus of this paper is acquisition strategy, Cost as an Independent Variable, risk management (identifying sources of risk), and engineering design analysis.)
2. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Inherent Limitations of Quantitative Cost Risk Assessment Methodologies," presented at the 29th Annual DoD Cost Analysis Symposium, 21-23 February 1996. This paper was winner of the best contractor paper of the symposium award.

1. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Potential Benefits Of Using Cost As An Independent Variable In Defense Programs," Program Manager, DSMC, November/December 1996.
2. Edmund H. Conrow and David Graham, "Cost as an Independent Variable," Co-developer and co-presenter of this invited briefing presented twice at the Air Force AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 17-18 March 1997.
3. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Considerations For Improving The Program Design Process With CAIV." Invited briefing at CAIV Workshop presented at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 20 March 1997.
4. Edmund H. Conrow, "CAIV and Risk Management." Invited presentation at the Society of Cost Estimation and Analysis (SCEA) CAIV Workshop, 18-19 March 1998. Also, served as workshop chairman for the two day CAIV and Risk Management tract at this conference.
5. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some CAIV Implementation Considerations." Invited presentation given twice at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 4 May 1998. Also co-facilitator of workshop.
6. Edmund H. Conrow, "CAIV and Risk Management: Some Issues and Solutions." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 6 May 1998. Also helped plan workshop.
7. Edmund H. Conrow, "CAIV Process Integration and Implementation." Conference overview presentation at the SCEA CAIV Workshop, 28 October 1998. Also, served as Conference deputy chairman and co-chairman of the two day CAIV Process Integration and Implementation Working Group at this conference.
8. Edmund H. Conrow, "CAIV Process Integration and Implementation." Invited presentation at the SCEA CAIV Workshop, 29 October 1998. Also, served as Conference Deputy Chairman and co-chairman of the two day CAIV Process Integration and Implementation Working Group at this conference.
9. Edmund H. Conrow and Lt. Col. Dorsey Higdon, "CAIV and IPTs." Invited presentation at the SCEA CAIV Workshop, 29 October 1998.
10. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some CAIV Engineering, Integration, and Implementation Considerations." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 9 June 1999. Also facilitator of workshop.
11. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some CAIV Integration and Implementation Considerations." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 9 June 1999. Also facilitator of CAIV Panel.
12. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some CAIV Engineering, Integration, and Implementation Considerations." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 23 May 2000. Also facilitator of workshop.
13. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some CAIV Integration and Implementation Considerations." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 24 May 2000.

1. Edmund H. Conrow, "The Use of Ordinal Risk Scales in Defense Systems Engineering," published in the "1995 Acquisition Research Symposium Proceedings," DSMC, June 1995.
2. Edmund H. Conrow and Mark A. Fredrickson, "Some Considerations for Implementing Risk Management In Defense Programs," Program Manager, DSMC, January/February 1996.
3. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Common Sources of Risk in Military Development Programs." Invited presentation at the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD)-Commercial Industry Meeting on Risk Management, 3 April 1996.
4. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Deficiencies and Lessons Learned for Incorporating Risk Management in Military Development Programs." Invited presentation at the OSD-Commercial Industry Meeting on Risk Management, 3 April 1996.
5. Col. Dana Spears and Edmund H. Conrow, "The Application of Risk Management and Cost as an Independent Variable on Air Force Space Programs." Presented at the Air Force Space and Missiles System Center (AFSMC) Acquisition Reform Day, 31 May 1996.
6. "Risk Management," Military Specifications and Standards Reform Program, Critical Process Assessment Tool, AFSMC/AXD (primary author, 1996 and subsequent editions, Air Force published document).
7. Facilitator for Risk Management Workshop. AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 21 March 1997.
8. Edmund H. Conrow, "Managing Risk In Aerospace Programs," Aerospace America, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, April 1997.
9. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Considerations for Implementing Risk Management In Development Projects." Invited paper and presentation for the 1997 Software Engineering Institute Conference on Risk Management, 7-9 April 1997.
10. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Considerations For Implementing Risk Management In Defense Space Projects." Invited presentation for the 1997 AFSMC/AX Industry Day, 23 April 1997.
11. Edmund H. Conrow and Patty S. Shishido, "Implementing Risk Management on Software-Intensive Projects," IEEE Software, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, special issue on software risk management, May/June 1997 (refereed journal).
12. Edmund H. Conrow, "Risk Management Lessons Learned." Invited presentation for the 1997 Aerospace Corporation Symposium on Risk Management, June 1997.
13. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Considerations for Implementing Risk Management in Commercial, Government and Defense Programs," published in the "1997 Acquisition Research Symposium Proceedings," DSMC, June 1997.
14. Edmund H. Conrow, "Cost Risk Analysis in the Risk Management Process." Invited presentation for the 1997 Acquisition Reform Model Sharing Workshop, 10 June 1997.
15. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Limitations of Quantitative Risk Analysis Approaches Used in Project Management," Invited paper by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, April 1998.
16. Edmund H. Conrow, "Risk Management Implementation: Some Lessons Learned." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 5 May 1998. Also co-facilitator of workshop.
17. Edmund H. Conrow, "Inappropriate Use of Ordinal Risk Scales: A Pervasive Risk Analysis Issue." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 6 May 1998. Also helped plan workshop.
18. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Project Risk Management Lessons Learned." Invited presentation to the Project Management Institute (Los Angeles Chapter) and subsequent paper, 10 September 1998.
19. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Limitations and Recommendations for Using Ordinal Scales in Risk Analysis," Presentation and Paper to the Aerospace Corporation Symposium on Risk Management, 8-11 February 1999.
20. Edmund H. Conrow and Stephen L. Carman, "Hyperion Project Risk Management Lessons Learned," Presentation to the Aerospace Corporation Symposium on Risk Management (Poster Session), 8-11 February 1999.
21. Bryant Cramer and Edmund H. Conrow, "Risk Management in Technology Validation Missions," Presentation to the International Astronautical Federation Specialists Symposium, 21 April 1999. I also served as Session Co-Chairman ("Cost and Risk Management"), and a member of the Conference Panel Discussion Session.
22. Edmund H. Conrow, "Risk Management Implementation: Some Lessons Learned." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 10 June 1999. Also facilitator of workshop.
23. Edmund H. Conrow, "Risk Management Implementation Issues: Some Lessons Learned." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 10 June 1999. Also facilitator of Risk Management Panel.
24. Edmund H. Conrow, "Risk Management Implementation: Some Lessons Learned." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 23 May 2000. Also facilitator of workshop.
25. Edmund H. Conrow and Bryant Cramer, "Cultural Implementation Considerations to Foster Effective Risk Management," NASA Mini-Retreat on Risk Management, 24 May 2000.
26. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Keys to Improving Risk Management Effectiveness." Invited presentation at AFSMC Acquisition Reform Week, 25 May 2000. Also facilitator of Risk Management Panel.
27. Edmund H. Conrow and Stephen L. Carman, "Hyperion--A Risk Management Success Story." Paper and presentation to the Project Management Institute 31st Annual Seminars & Technical Program, 11 September 2000.
28. Edmund H. Conrow, "Lessons Learned from Implementing Risk Management on Real Programs." Invited and featured presentation at the Institute for International Research conference on Estimating and Managing Project Risks, 24 October 2000.
29. Edmund H. Conrow, Stephen Carman, and Bryant Cramer, "Risk Management on Hyperion: Consultant, Industry, and NASA Perspectives." Invited paper and presentation to Risk Management 2000, The Aerospace Corporation and Air Force SMC, 30 November 2000.
30. Edmund H. Conrow, "Making Risk Management Work on Your Project." Invited presentation to the Project Management Institute (Los Angeles Chapter), 8 February 2001.
31. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Keys to Making Risk Management Work on Your Project." International Council on Systems Engineering, "INSIGHT," Vol 4, Issue 1, April 2001.
32. Edmund H. Conrow, "Some Risk Management Process and Implementation Lessons Learned." Invited presentation to the International Council on Systems Engineering and Project Management Institute Joint Conference on Risk Management, May 2001. Also Lessons Learned Track Chairman and member of the Conference panel discussion on risk management.

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